Healthcare themes have long-term investment value
According to statistics, from 1950 to 2050, the proportion of people over 65 years old in China's population pyramid structure is expanding. In 1950, the proportion of people over 65 years old was only 4.9%, which rose to 21.5% in 2007, and is expected to reach 39.6% in 2050.
We believe that the population is facing aging, modern people's various civilized diseases and chronic diseases are increasing, the demand for medical resources upgrading is expanding in the process of urbanization, and the existence of unreasonable phenomena such as expensive medical treatment has become the basis for the development of private hospitals. The combination of many factors will promote the development of health care industry in an all-round way.
Through the analysis of policy, demand, market value, valuation and investment, we believe that the long-term investment value of the health care industry is obvious. On the policy side, the Chinese government has a complete blueprint for medical reform; on the demand side, individual and government medical expenditures continue to grow; on the market value side, the market value growth potential of major domestic pharmaceutical enterprises is large; on the valuation side, the price earnings ratio of the medical and health care sector is at the historical average level; on the investment side, the long-term performance of the medical index is superior to the market, making it easy to be recognized by the capital market 。
Specific to the industry growth, we believe that in the next few years, the annual revenue of the medical sector can reach 20% growth, and the profit growth rate can reach 30%. Under the rapid growth of the industry, it can support the current average price earnings ratio valuation of 37 times.
Care about medical services and medical devices
As a sector and theme, the health care industry as a whole has been optimistic for a long time. We said that the healthcare industry mainly consists of four parts: pharmaceutical manufacturing, medical services, pharmaceutical circulation and medical devices, of which medical services and medical devices are more promising.
The scale of drug sales in China is growing rapidly, and there is a large space for growth in the future. However, due to the weakness of medical insurance and R & D, the growth space of drug manufacturing and drug sales in China is not large, and there is a large volatility. Compared with that, the growth of medical services and medical devices is better.
We believe that the demand for medical treatment and testing brought about by chronic diseases is huge. In addition, the cost of drugs has become the focus of medical reform. Hospitals actively increase their income by purchasing treatment and testing equipment, and medical devices will become more and more advanced. Various innovations such as smart medical devices and wearable devices contain a lot of investment opportunities.
In the medical service market, private hospitals and outsourcing services have strong growth momentum, especially the modern chain operation of private hospitals. We said that the total scale of China's health service industry is 1.65 trillion yuan, and the proportion of non-public hospital services is less than 10%. The State Council clearly proposed that
In 2020, the total scale of health service industry will reach more than 8 trillion yuan, and the number of beds and service volume of non-public medical institutions will account for 20%.
Now M & A is very popular in the market. Last year, the amount of M & A transactions of pharmaceutical listed companies exceeded 20 billion yuan. In the past year, more than 30 listed companies have been suspended due to acquisition. Continuous M & A is good for pharmaceutical listed companies and the market of the plate.